GreyBrook logotype
Contact Us

Urbanation takes on “twisted info” about Toronto condo market from new Financial Post article

December 14, 2012

twisted-information-300x185The following is a re-post from Urbanation’s blogUrbanation is the leader in condominium market research and the authoritative source for information on Toronto’s high-rise condo market.

The incorrect statistics in this Financial Post article today was quite unbelievable, we wanted to set the record straight on some the the data quoted in this article (click here for the article).

The gist of the article is that the Bank of Canada is worried about the financial ramifications of a potential condo market meltdown, however they are basing their assumptions on the probability of such a meltdown on incorrect figures.

Here are the real figures in relation to what was included in the article:

1) False claim: Since June 2011 the number of unsold high-rise units in the pre-construction stage has doubled.

Actual data: The number of unsold condominium apartment units in the pre-construction stage of development at the end of Q2-2011 in the Toronto CMA was 7,063, that figure increased to 10,261 at the end of Q3-2012. Not exactly doubled.


2) False claim: Unsold units under construction have also increased from fewer than 5,000 at the beginning of 2012 to almost 7,000.

Actual data: The first part is accurate, there were 4,915 unsold units in projects under construction at the end of Q1-2012 in the Toronto CMA, but that increased to 6,357 at the end of Q3-2012. Is 6,357, almost 7,000? That is a little bit more than a rounding error.

Because the total number of units under construction increased drastically, the increase in unsold units represents a drop from 90% sold to 89% sold of units under construction.

The Bank of Canada needs to understand that several developers raise the prices of their units significantly and close their sales offices when construction starts (and sales subsequently slow) as they believe they can achieve a premium selling these units when the project is completed in two or three years when buyers can walk through the units. The probability that pricing is below 2012 price levels in 2015 is very low, and even if that occurred, many developers would lease the units until the market improved, as the average project at occupancy is almost 95% sold. Assuming even that demand for condominium rentals was halved, we would still be in balanced market conditions in that sector.


3) Twisted claim: The prices of high-rise units have flattened while their sales have declined, suggesting that demand is slowing while the supply of unsold units (including those not built) is still strong.

Actual Data: The average new condominium apartment sold index price in Q3-2012 was $530 psf in the Toronto CMA, a 7% increase annually. The media was calling the 9% year-over-year pricing a bubble in 2011, but 7% annual growth in 2012 is now flattening out?

They are correct that sales have declined, but declined from the highest sales year on record. It’s like saying a guy that is 6’7″ is short because you are comparing him to Shaquille O’Neal! 2012 will result in approximately 18,000 to 19,000 new condominium sales, below the five year average, but above the 10 year average. Likely a welcome relief for the construction industry, that is trying to catch up with the sales.

Unsold supply decreased in Q3-2012 in comparison to Q2-2012 in the Toronto CMA and is still represents just 20% of the total universe of suites, below both the five year and 10 year averages!

We hope the Bank of Canada has a look at this post!

FYI: Urbanation’s Executive Vice President Ben Myers will be on Canada AM on CTV around 7:05am on Friday, December 7th to discuss this topic.  

Original Source:


The House of Assembly Breaks Ground in Toronto’s Junction Triangle

Portfolio Updates
November 26, 2021

Peter Politis, CEO and Sarah Mansour, Executive Director of Strategy and Corporate Development at Greybrook Realty Partners joined our developer partners at Marlin Spring to celebrate this major project milestone and speak about the area’s exciting evolution. This transformation of…

Greybrook’s Christopher Kozub Honoured as 2021 Lexpert Rising Star: Leading Lawyer Under 40

Company News
November 25, 2021

This year, Greybrook is pleased to announce that Christopher Kozub, Greybrook Securities Inc., General Counsel has been recognized as a Leading Lawyer Under 40 as winner of Lexpert’s 2021 Rising Stars Award. Finalists from law firms, in-house legal departments, government,…

Watch Canadian Business and Toronto Life Insider’s Fireside Chat with CEO Peter Politis

October 27, 2021

Watch the full virtual Fireside Chat below. During the discussion, Peter recounts the unique position Toronto is in for real estate investment opportunities, giving the city plenty of room for long-term sustainable growth. Ranking as one of the most livable…

Watch the Waldorf Astoria Residences Miami Project Film

October 22, 2021

Watch the short film below. Designed unlike anything built before in Miami, this luxury residential and hospitality tower will include a stack of nine offset glass cubes, replicating a freestanding sculpture in the sky. The design is led by concept…

Construction Progresses at Symphony Towns in Oshawa

Portfolio Updates
October 18, 2021

With phase I foundations and framing complete, the construction team has been hard at work beginning the drywall and interior finishing work. Alongside developer partner, Marlin Spring, the townhome project will bring over 200 beautifully designed homes to the heart…

Society Atlanta Makes Waves with Latest Announcement

Portfolio Updates
October 15, 2021

The exciting news was picked up by the Atlanta Business Chronicle, Atlanta Agent Magazine and REBusiness Online. Society Atlanta is the latest addition to our growing nation platform in partnership with PMG. With plans set for Atlanta our expanding portfolio…

Groundbreaking Held for Artistry Project in Downtown Toronto

Portfolio Updates
September 30, 2021

  Peter Politis, CEO of Greybrook Realty Partners and Jared Berlin, Executive Director of Greybrook’s Asset Management group joined our developer partners at Tribute Communities to celebrate this major project milestone and official construction kick off. Located in Downtown Toronto,…

Greybrook Sponsored and Participated In Velo Blu 2021 Charity Bike Ride

September 29, 2021

This charity ride is in support of the Blu Genes Foundation, a charitable foundation on a mission to advance gene therapy and find a cure for genetic disorders. Last Friday, the Greybrook team was out in full force to participate…

Greybrook Realty Partners Secures US$61,200,000 for a Multi-Family Residential Development Project with PMG in Atlanta, Georgia

Company News
September 28, 2021

Greybrook Realty Partners Inc. announced today that its managed issuer has secured US$61,200,000 in committed equity capital to acquire and oversee the development of a prime parcel of land in Atlanta, Georgia. Together with its developer partner, PMG, the firm…

Greybrook Realty Partners Invests $43,525,000 in a Low-Rise Residential Development Project with Tribute Communities in Lindsay, Ontario

Company News
September 22, 2021

Greybrook Realty Partners Inc. announced today the successful closing of an equity investment by its managed issuer of $43,525,000 to acquire and oversee the development of a prime parcel of land located east of Highway 35, south of Thunder Bridge…